The Fiscal Cliff Ahead: A Sectoral Exposure Index for the Expiration of Federal Small Business Relief among Abu Dhabi SMEs

This article develops the Fiscal Cliff Exposure Index (FCEI), a sector-level composite indicator anticipating the 31 December 2026 expiration of the UAE's federal Small Business Relief regime for Abu Dhabi SMEs. The contribution is methodological: it specifies the index's full formula, data sources, and construct-validation design, demonstrating its mechanics on a labeled illustrative case rather than an executed ranking. Combining threshold proximity, historical shock elasticity, and compliance-burden intensity from open Statistics Centre – Abu Dhabi data, the index ranks sectoral exposure once populated. A grouped-data Pareto interpolation keeps it executable regardless of publication granularity, giving policymakers and entrepreneurs a reproducible exposure benchmark.