Extreme Heat and Food Price Inflation in The United Arab Emirates
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54878/3f34ax59Keywords:
heatflation, food price inflation, UAE food security, extreme heat, Consumer Price Index, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), import dependence, climate change, descriptive statisticsAbstract
The UAE is one of the world's hottest countries and imports more than 90% of the food consumed by its population. This study asks a simple question: when UAE summers become more extreme, do food prices increase? To answer this, annual temperature records and annual food price inflation data for the UAE from 2013 to 2025 were collected and compared using straightforward statistical tools - averages, percentage changes, year-on-year comparisons, and the Pearson correlation coefficient. The results show a consistent positive relationship between hotter years and higher food inflation. Years in which average maximum temperatures were at least 0.5°C above the long-term baseline experienced average food inflation of 2.9%, compared to 2.3% in cooler years - a difference of approximately 26%. The Pearson correlation between annual maximum temperature and annual food inflation across the 13-year dataset is r = +0.61, indicating a moderately strong positive relationship. The paper also identifies five mechanisms through which extreme heat may contribute to rising food prices and concludes with three practical policy recommendations for the UAE government. All analysis was conducted in Microsoft Excel using publicly available data.
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